Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 40.521770 47.851430 55.890711 65.331166 76.080161 87.904245 101.860032
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 28.200823 37.516526 48.748897 63.153883 80.987945 102.185261 129.112269
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 22.002591 32.147009 45.306760 63.336727 87.064137 116.861236 156.693462
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 18.120123 28.683649 43.257865 64.342161 93.487600 131.713896 184.878056
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 13.686503 23.501821 37.905076 59.883400 91.735779 135.264029 198.077011
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.875559 21.809367 37.137738 61.546975 98.262594 150.059350 226.944334
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 9.928378 19.518181 35.079241 60.921934 101.221719 159.835037 249.197925
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.253936 19.219517 36.052497 64.945736 111.281589 180.269319 287.611363
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 7.377946 16.448680 32.574817 61.427312 109.333020 182.736348 299.812267
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 6.706103 15.794044 32.596104 63.613408 116.463134 199.174990 333.507803
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 6.426833 15.857910 33.878128 68.020785 127.447953 222.076302 378.037399
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.830054 15.161848 33.661243 69.734814 134.005591 238.290288 412.918817
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.997775 13.913561 32.442029 69.910687 138.644438 252.802627 447.740560
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.053442 12.214594 30.117264 67.837619 139.320794 261.139464 473.658232
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.467381 11.222267 29.071594 68.055562 144.039798 276.411394 511.574901
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.035776 10.511191 28.505664 69.126089 150.348586 294.679744 555.292443
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.305159 8.770074 25.320556 64.388371 145.218708 292.672082 564.668762
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.065119 8.377117 25.216736 66.156523 152.766487 313.465518 613.985670
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.738465 7.614912 24.075271 65.492256 155.391378 325.464024 648.514318
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.671625 7.690352 25.075539 69.767492 168.328167 357.024362 718.883780
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.299227 6.576047 22.744027 66.029358 164.374490 356.887337 732.643834
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.191973 6.401726 22.950060 68.352199 173.358099 381.633562 792.409677
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.166062 6.542224 24.073867 73.032989 187.721245 417.351880 873.615859